PoliticsPolymarket
🏛
Which party controls the House after the midterms?
Certified results, 435 seats
Democrats57%1.9
Republicans43%1.9
$41.2M vol2 outcomescloses in 3mo
DemocratsMarkets
32 live markets · aggregated depth from Polymarket, Kalshi and Predct
EconomyKalshi
🏛
Fed cuts rates at the September meeting?
Any cut of 25bps or more
Cut 25bps54%2.6
Cut 50bps13%1.1
No change33%3.7
$22.8M vol3 outcomescloses in 41d
Cut 25bpsCryptoPolymarket
₿
Bitcoin above $150,000 on Dec 31, 2026?
Resolves to the Coinbase BTC-USD close
Yes41%3.2
$18.4M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesEconomyKalshi
📊
S&P 500 closes above 7,000 this year?
Any daily close
Yes55%1.3
$15.6M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesTechKalshi
🟩
Nvidia above a $6T market cap this year?
Any close above the threshold
Yes49%2.4
$12.1M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesPoliticsPolymarket
🕊
Ceasefire agreement signed before November?
Officially confirmed by both parties
Yes23%2.8
$9.9M vol2 outcomescloses in 3mo
YesTechPredct
🧠
GPT-6 released to the public before 2027?
General availability announcement
Yes36%4.8
$8.9M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesCryptoPolymarket
Ξ
Ethereum flips $8,000 before October?
Any 1h close above $8,000 on Binance
Yes27%1.4
$7.1M vol2 outcomescloses in 2mo
YesPoliticsKalshi
🚧
Government shutdown before October 1?
Any lapse in appropriations
Yes34%6.2
$6.0M vol2 outcomescloses in 2mo
YesSportsPolymarket
⚽
Man City vs Arsenal — Winner
Premier League, Aug 16
Man City44%0.6
Draw24%0.2
Arsenal32%0.4
$5.6M vol3 outcomescloses in 11d
Man CityTechPredct
🧩
OpenAI announces a consumer device?
Hardware product publicly unveiled
Yes39%6.7
$4.4M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesEconomyKalshi
📈
US annual CPI print for July
Bureau of Labor Statistics headline figure
Above 3.4%47%2.1
3.3% – 3.4%33%1.4
Below 3.3%20%0.7
$4.3M vol3 outcomescloses in 6d
Above 3.4%CryptoKalshi
✕
A spot XRP ETF approved before November?
SEC approval of any US spot XRP product
Yes62%5.1
$3.6M vol2 outcomescloses in 3mo
YesTechPolymarket
Apple ships a foldable iPhone this cycle?
Announced at any 2026 Apple event
Yes21%1.9
$3.3M vol2 outcomescloses in 3mo
YesSportsPolymarket
🏀
Lakers vs Celtics — Winner
Regular season, Aug 12
Lakers47%2.2
Celtics53%2.2
$3.1M vol2 outcomescloses in 7d
LakersCryptoPredct
◎
Solana in the top 3 by market cap this year?
Snapshot on Dec 31 at 00:00 UTC
Yes18%0.9
$2.9M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesSportsKalshi
🏎
Verstappen wins the drivers' championship?
Final standings after Abu Dhabi
Yes58%1.7
$2.8M vol2 outcomescloses in 4mo
YesEconomyPolymarket
🛢
Brent crude closes above $95 this quarter?
ICE Brent front-month settlement
Yes29%4.4
$2.5M vol2 outcomescloses in 2mo
YesEconomyPolymarket
🏦
Another US bank fails before December?
FDIC receivership of an insured bank
Yes26%1.8
$2.2M vol2 outcomescloses in 4mo
YesEconomyKalshi
💼
US unemployment above 4.5% in Q4?
Any monthly print in Oct–Dec
Yes38%0.8
$2.0M vol2 outcomescloses in 4mo
YesTechPolymarket
🚀
Starship completes an orbital refuel demo?
SpaceX confirmed ship-to-ship transfer
Yes44%3.1
$1.9M vol2 outcomescloses in 4mo
YesEconomyPredct
🇹🇷
Turkey's policy rate below 30% by year end?
CBRT one-week repo rate
Yes42%2.2
$1.6M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesSportsPredct
🏀
Lakers to reach the Conference Finals?
2026-27 postseason
Yes31%1.1
$1.5M vol2 outcomescloses in 8mo
YesPoliticsPolymarket
🇬🇧
New UK general election called this year?
Dissolution of Parliament announced
Yes12%0.4
$1.2M vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesEconomyKalshi
🌡
Hottest August on record globally?
NOAA monthly climate report
Yes63%4.1
$1.1M vol2 outcomescloses in 34d
YesCryptoPredct
₿
Bitcoin dominance above 55% in September?
TradingView BTC.D monthly close
Yes48%2.6
$980K vol2 outcomescloses in 45d
YesCultureKalshi
🍿
Box office #1 for the opening weekend?
Domestic gross, Aug 14-16
Nightfall52%2.9
Copper Line28%1.4
Other20%1.5
$890K vol3 outcomescloses in 10d
NightfallCulturePolymarket
🎬
Top US Netflix movie on Aug 10?
Netflix Top 10 daily chart
72 Hours32%5.5
The Idaho Murders41%2.2
Field of Static27%3.3
$740K vol3 outcomescloses in 5d
72 HoursSportsPolymarket
🎮
Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3)
LCK Round 3-4, Legend Group
Hanwha Life51%3.9
Gen.G49%3.9
$608K vol2 outcomescloses in 1d
Hanwha LifeCulturePredct
🎵
Album of the Year goes to a debut artist?
Next Grammy ceremony
Yes19%0.8
$520K vol2 outcomescloses in 5mo
YesSportsKalshi
⚾
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee — Winner
MLB, Aug 6
Milwaukee56%1.2
Pittsburgh44%1.2
$436K vol2 outcomescloses in 1d
MilwaukeeCulturePolymarket
𝕏
Elon Musk posts 200+ times next week?
Aug 4 – Aug 11 post count
200-21919%1.6
180-19917%0.5
160-17914%1.1
$101K vol4 outcomescloses in 6d
200-219