How Predct works
Predct is a prediction-market parlay simulator. You build multi-leg positions, a correlation-aware engine prices them, and virtual credits settle the result. Here is the whole loop.
1. Browse markets
Every market is a question with a date attached — will BTC close above a level, will a rate cut land, will a team win. The percentage next to it is the market's implied probability of YES. Volume, liquidity and the 24h move tell you how much conviction sits behind that number.
2. Pick a side
YES pays if the event happens; NO pays if it does not. Choosing NO simply flips the probability: a 30% YES is a 70% NO. Probabilities are clamped to the 3%–97% band so a single near-certain leg cannot distort a parlay.
3. Build a parlay
Add up to one leg per market, eight legs per parlay. A parlay is all-or-nothing: every leg has to land for it to pay. One leg is a straight bet; each leg you add lifts the multiplier and lowers the odds of getting there.
4. Read the price
The slip prints one multiplier and the chance every leg lands, on the Predct model and at market price. Alongside it sit the model edge — how the model rates the offered price — and the break-even hit rate the price demands, with the platform margin stated underneath.
5. Correlation gets priced
Legs from the same event cluster move together, so stacking them is closer to one bet than three. Predct lifts the joint probability toward the weakest leg and trims the payout accordingly. Diversified legs keep the full multiplier.
6. Settlement
Positions resolve on an accelerated clock — about 45 seconds after placement — so you can see a full cycle instead of waiting months. Legs resolve deterministically from the same correlated distribution your parlay was priced with: correlated legs move together, hedged legs move apart, and a refresh never re-rolls the result. That means a correlated parlay and a diversified one return the same long-run share of stake — the trimmed payout is matched by a genuinely higher chance of hitting. Wins credit the payout back to your balance; losses keep the stake.
Your credits
A new account starts with 250 virtual credits. They are not money, cannot be bought, sold, transferred or redeemed, and exist only in your browser’s local storage. If you run low, a daily top-up refills you to 100 credits whenever your balance falls below 25, once every 24 hours. Your balance and position history stay on this device between sessions — signing out clears the session, not the account.
What the numbers mean
Win chance is the engine’s joint probability that every leg lands. Break-even is the probability you would need for the price to be fair. Edge is the gap between the Predct model’s view and the offered price. Because every quote is priced off the less generous of the market and model views, that gap is always at least the platform margin wide — no combination of legs prices in your favour.
The exact formulas are written out on the pricing engine page.