Fed cuts rates at the September meeting?

Any cut of 25bps or more

Volume

$22.8M

Liquidity

$2.5M

Traders

16,286

30-day probability — Cut 25bps

Cut 25bps54%

Cut 50bps13%

No change33%

EconomyKalshi

📈

Bureau of Labor Statistics headline figure

Above 3.4%47%2.1

3.3% – 3.4%33%1.4

Below 3.3%20%0.7

$4.3M vol3 outcomescloses in 6d

EconomyKalshi

💼

Any monthly print in Oct–Dec

Yes38%0.8

$2.0M vol2 outcomescloses in 4mo

EconomyPolymarket

🛢

ICE Brent front-month settlement

Yes29%4.4

$2.5M vol2 outcomescloses in 2mo